In a recent article in the Guardian, Doug Weir explained the difficulties of assessing the cost to the environment of war and the military industrial complex. With the increasing realisation of the damage being done to our climate by intensive farming, the destruction of ecosystems and over exploitation, among other things, there is increasing interest in the role that war — and the preparation for war — also plays. It is however not easy to find this information as governments involved in military activity publish few figures about the environmental impact.
It is only since the Russian invasion of Ukraine when journalists began asking questions about the environmental impact of the war that researchers have started to systematically try and document the effect on the climate. They have had to develop their methodologies from scratch. The ability to assess the climate impact of militarism is hampered by the long standing secrecy surrounding military activity. At the insistence of the USA military operations were excluded from the Kyoto Protocol in 1997. Any reporting is voluntary and only a handful of countries publish even the bare minimum required by UN reporting guidelines.
The best estimate is that the military is responsible for about 5·5% of global green-house emissions. If the global military were a country this would place it fourth in terms of emissions, between India and Russia. To reduce and ultimately stop these emissions governments should be required to acknowledge the outsize role militaries play in global emissions and the need for much greater transparency.
Ruth Crabb
I wonder how many of us are familiar with the results of a YouGov poll published on the 1st of February on the likelihood of a Third World War in 5–10 years. The headline results are disturbing: over half of Britons think it is likely; somewhat under half think Britain and allies would win; and well over half think it is likely to be fought with nuclear weapons. https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/48527-world-war-3-likely-in-next-5-10-years-think-most-britons
Is that a fair reflection of the national outlook — accepting the likelihood of involvement in major, probably nuclear-armed, conflict within a decade? Those of us who have been out and about, offering leaflets and information, are encouraged by increased public interest. London Region CND were agreeably shocked by the response to their recent ad to recruit interns: 59 applications before the closing date and more which followed.
But while we fill the streets with partners from other organisations calling for an immediate ceasefire in the Ukraine and Gaza, politicians of both main parties as well as the mainstream media see the way forward in military terms. UK defence spending (£50 billion) just crosses NATO’s 2% of GDP threshold. The United States and Britain have been generous in supplying equipment to Ukraine and since January both have targeted Yemen’s Houthis for their military interference with traffic in the Red Sea. So far, that has made heroes of the Houthis whose own strikes go on.
The axiom that a nuclear war can never be won and must never be fought no longer applies, it seems. A fifth of the UK’s defence budget maintains our nuclear deterrent which one researcher says is cannibalising the conventional forces, now seriously depleted.
That said, as we approach a general election, time may be on our side. The Treaty to Prohibit Nuclear Weapons has been in force for three years and continues to gain support: currently, there are 93 signatories and 69 fully-signed-up states parties. Let’s try again to get Merton signed up to the ICAN Cities Appeal!
Alison Williams
That question is engaging some of us in CND these days and it would be good to know what our members think. With the Gaza conflict in mind, where should the Peace Movement’s focus be? Brief responses to the editor alisonwilliams36@btinternet.com are welcome.
My Friday Vigil placard read “Law not War: peace & justice through the United Nations” and that still expresses what I see as the positive way forward to the world we all want. Law and Order broadly prevails within nation states. International Law has a long history but is still of course a Work in Progress. The Treaty of Kadesh united the two civilisations of the ancient world and in our own time global agreements have come by leaps and bounds. Still there are savage conflicts, extremes of injustice and international criminality on a grand scale. International Law — the UN Charter and the archive of agreements — faces an acute crisis of implementation.
Take the situation in the Middle East, a tinderbox region for over a century. From the British Mandate over Palestine to the present, External Powers determined to impose a sovereign regime on land already inhabited. Since 2012 Palestine has been recognised as an Observer State at the United Nations, recognised by 139 of the 193 Members. Israel exists as a full Member State, recognised by 165 but its legitimacy has always been challenged; since 2021 on grounds of International Law.
In 1976 a convention in which apartheid was defined and designated as a crime against humanity came into force through the International Court of Justice. Its application beyond South Africa was confirmed by subsequent agreements, notably the Rome Statute of 1998 which established the International Criminal Court. That too designates apartheid a crime against humanity. The ICJ deals with governments; the ICC with individuals.
The Israeli Human Rights Organisation B’tselem published a report in January 2021 saying Israel was not the vibrant democracy it claimed to be. It concluded, “This is not a democracy. This is apartheid.”
In March 2021 the ICC Prosecutor announced the opening of an investigation into the Situation in Palestine and in December 2022 ten human rights groups working in Israel looked forward to a visit from the Prosecutor for an update on their case. A year later South Africa’s 84-page application to the ICJ charged Israel with violations under the Genocide Convention: failing to prevent it and failing to prevent or punish incitement to commit it. Israel of course vehemently rejects both sets of charges: that it is an apartheid state which perpetrates genocide.
The wheels of justice grind slowly but after decades of impunity they have begun to turn for Israel.
Alison Williams
Several of our members supported anti-Arms Trade and pro-Palestinian activities in Twickenham in January concluding with a three-hour protest outside the Rugby Stadium on the 22nd. Protestors had painted the front of the stadium blood-red overnight; stadium staff were attempting to remove it when the daytime group arrived. The current Israeli overkill in Gaza increases the outrage felt about companies making billions of pounds in profits from the devastation and suffering.
Twickenham is the official home of England Rugby but in January and February each year the stadium provides a venue for International Conferences of the Armoured Vehicles and Military Helicopter companies. These include Leonardo, an Italian company: about 150 countries purchase its products, systems and services. Raytheon UK is another, proud of its innovation in complex weapon systems. Elbit Systems is Israeli-based with subsidiaries in the UK and round the world. They are the primary provider of the Israeli military’s land-based equipment and drones. Every year representatives of some of the world’s most abusive militaries come to meet those suppliers of tanks, helicopters and the rest, “battle-tested” as the Israelis boast.
A placard at the Twickenham street actions invited drivers to honk for Palestine and many did. Further afield, Palestine Action in Manchester scored a significant success in January after years of campaigning: https://www.palestineaction.org/victory-in-oldham/.
The clear lesson, in these dark and depressing times, is that we must remain dedicated and persistent, taking encouragement from the evidence of increasing public support.
Alison Williams
The London Region CND conference on Sunday 14th January preceded the AGM on the 15th. The organisation is in good health financially and has had a very positive response to an ad for paid internships, though the departure of the effective Office Coordinator Julie Saumagne leaves a gap it will take time to fill.
Inspiration at the AGM was provided by guest speaker Roger McKenzie, who spoke on the arms trade. The exploitation of the Global South to supply materials for weapons, planes and related equipment is too little understood. He spoke of children in the DR Congo digging for cobalt with rudimentary tools and no health-and-safety protection. They should be in school, but their parents can’t afford the uniforms and the children may be the family breadwinners. “We use our phones with what these kids dig up.” He hopes CND will be part of a wider movement building alliances with countries in the Global South, lending “arm, brain, strength and organising ability” to match the organisation of the arms industry.
Under the heading “Nuclear War Clouds Gathering”, speakers discussed preparations for the return of US Nukes to RAF Lakenheath, the approaching renewal of the Mutual Defence Agreement with the United States and the security situation in Ukraine. Lakenheath was home to US weapons from the 1950s until 2008 when popular protest won their removal. But about two years ago the UK was found on a list of locations for the storage of NATO weapons facilities undergoing a major upgrade. Apart from environmental impact, the concern focuses on risks like the mishandling of weapons, security threats and potential UK targeting in case of nuclear conflict — in 1956 and 1961 there were two near-nuclear accidents at Lakenheath.
The Mutual Defence Agreement/MDA which Britain has with the United States is due for renewal this year. It was established in 1958 and has been renewed with occasional modifications every ten years. Basic information about it is accessible via the UK Parliament website but little is known of the content. It clashes with US/UK commitments under the Non-Proliferation Treaty in two respects: it perpetuates development of nuclear weapons rather than fulfilling the NPT pledge to work towards disarmament, and it is is at odds with the NPT directive against the transfer of nuclear materials and equipment. It is exempt from parliamentary scrutiny and the UK is heavily dependent on the US for the sourcing, maintenance and replacement of our Trident missiles.
The speakers at Conference underlined the danger of this nuclear relationship at a time when war clouds are looming over Europe and the Far East. It is in no way a partnership of equals and RAF Lakenheath has experienced those two near-nuclear accidents. Who wants England turned into an American aircraft carrier?
After months of stalemate the situation in Ukraine is at a critical danger point, dependent as it is on supplies from America which may not be forthcoming. At the end of November 2023 the United Nations Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine estimated a loss of 18,500 lives from the conflict, at least 10,000 of them civilian. CND continues to highlight the significance of this conflict with its potential for an existential nuclear conflict between NATO and Russia. It calls on the UK government to convene peace talks and for a halt to NATO expansion; the security interests of all parties must be respected and all Russian troops in Ukraine must withdraw.
The final section of the CND Conference dealt with the crisis which has dominated the news since the 7th of October. Raghad Altikriti (Muslim Association of Britain), Sami Ramadani (Iraqi Democrats Against War) and Jenny Manson (Jewish Voice for Labour) all spoke of the impact of the war on Gaza. Of the three, Sami was on his own in seeing a positive side to events: Palestinians had taken the initiative for the first time in decades and were no longer vassals of dictators, and young Americans had recognised “the ugly face of Zionism”.
Conference and AGM together presented CND mindful of daunting dangers and challenges. The Doomsday Clock is at 90 seconds to midnight. The world survived that through the Cuban Missile Crisis. Let’s hope those of Ukraine and Gaza become harmless history too.
Alison Williams
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